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Monday, 19 January 2009

The Threat at the end of the Tunnel

Sinister new plans that could put Morgan Tsvangirai behind bars

Tsvangirai and Mugabe are talking again. It's a last ditch attempt to agree on a power sharing government in Zimbabwe, and everyone says it's doomed to failure. There is no light at the end of the tunnel for Morgan Tsvangirai. But there could be a very nasty surprise.

Tsvangirai and Mugabe are being watched by President Motlanthe and Ex-President Mbeki of South Africa and President Armando Guebuza of Mozambique. And my advice to Tsvangirai is just this:  when and if these Harare talks break down, hitch a lift out of Zimbabwe with one or other president. Stay - and you could be in big trouble.

My sources within Mugabe's Zanu-PF cabal tell me that plans are well advanced for the leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) to be arrested as soon as the talking stops. The charge will be treason. And this time Mugabe means it.

Tsvangirai will not be held in any local police station. He won't be knocked about a bit, then released, as he was last year. Instead he will be hauled off to the notorious police torture camp at Bindura in Mashonaland, where a vintage Zanu-PF reception committee is already waiting for him.

"They have his cell well prepared," my source told me. "The guys with the sticks can't wait to start beating him, they want to hear him squeal like a baby."

Tsvangirai is clearly aware that he is in danger. He has stayed out of the country for weeks until this meeting, and he has watched from Botswana as many senior MDC officials and supporters have been abducted by the authorities. To date 32 party members are known to be in custody, and another 11 are missing.

It is Tsvangirai's demands that his people be released, together with the long-term disagreement over the make-up of a power-sharing government, that has helped doom these latest talks to probably failure. He can't be seen now to give in to Mugabe's conditions.

Mugabe, too, is sticking to his guns. With no intention of any real sharing of power, he has anticipated that these talks will fail. Then he will make his move, charging Tsvangirai with treason, with plotting the removal of the President, and with attempting to raise forces in Botswsana to invade Zimbabwe.

Grab a lift and get out of there, Morgan. Before it's too late.

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Comments

I am very very happy that the talks have failed yet again.GNU in ZIMBABWE is a none starter and we all know that.If ZANU-PF was doing this in good faith, they would have stopped abducting and killing MDC supporters a long time ago, but this has continued unabated.The plan `B` left which has been tried several times and now that the time is ripe,is for ALL Zimbabweans at home and in diaspora to uprise against ZANU-PF in support of MDC.Today,Tsvangirai should leave ZIMBABWE at once.I agree with Moses Moyo that Mugabe is going to cow and eradicate all his opponents.

It's time for Zimbabweans to once again take up arms against their oppressor. there really is no other option. TYsvangarai should set up a govt in exile, as the ruling party in parliament. He should then call for a full boycott on Zimbabwe, it won't hurt ordinary Zimbabweans too long because a proper boycott would cause a total collapse within weeks, a civil war will break out, there will be a coup, the AU will have to step in and eventually proper elections be held. This is what happened in Liberia and Sierra Leone, they are peaceful now. Things couldn't get any worse for Zimbabweans, and it seems the Africa way that bloodshed and total civic disorder are the only eventualities for unseating dictators. It's SADC's doing and can become SADC's undoing.

Andrew is right. However he underestimates the temerity of the Mugabe kleptocracy and the unqualified support is gets from the ANC, which is using the South Afrcan economy as a cash machine for ZANU-PF.

In order to make things happen, you can't just call for a boycott. You need to target the cash machine, or Mugabe will just hang on with ANC support. The way to speed up the process is to organise - along with a powerful armed resistance - a rapid and surgical strike against the South African government - ideally eliminating the top 2 or 3 layers of ANC leadership.

In the ensuing political vacuum and chaos in South Africa Mugabe will be very vulnerable. That is when to strike hardest.

By the way, you could of course wait until a day in which the ANC is simply voted out of power but I don't think it is going to happen - too many people in South Africa are just as deluded by the ANC as Zimbabweans were by ZANU-PF. And who is to say that the ANC won't just refuse to concede defeat?

DC is correct but do not forget about the Chinese cash machine. Below is an article about Zambia and the Chinese, but it applies to Zimbabwe just as well.

"Zambia’s President Rupiah Banda confirmed this week that talks with China on taking over mines previously owned by Israeli, European and Canadian investors were at an advanced stage. He added he was confident Zambia’s close ties with China would help cushion it from the worst effects of the recession in the West.

“We don’t have the type of problems we had in the past… We can get Chinese investors. You know the Chinese and perhaps the Indians seem to be the only people to have money left to invest in the mines. Several Asians, including the Chinese, are interested in coming to Zambia to take any empty mines,” he said.

China, which has pumped billions of pounds in aid and loans into Africa in the last 10 years, has an estimated $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves which it plans to diversify away from Western economies and dollar-denominated funds.

Economists say it plans to use this war chest to buy up operations abandoned by western companies – a move which delights many African countries who say former colonial powers resent China’s presence because they see Africa as their own turf".

RM: yes China is also a crutch that the Mugabe regime can lean on - but I still maintain that if the SA government can be incapacitated for a even a few weeks, a well organised and rapid strike at the heart of Mugabe's junta will break it.

Chinese help will only come into consideration if the struggle continues for an extended period.

Also, I do not believe that China has any ideological affiliation with ZANU-PF as in the days of the Cold War. They are in it just for the money and resources. A quiet deal between the Chinese authorities and the MDC with the promise of a few concessions in the post-Mugabe era will see that allegiance switch - PROVIDED that they can convince the Chinese that assets already in Zim will be protected and that they will succeed in overthrowing Mugabe quickly.

All that is needed is that once the liberation war commences China must delay assistance (just to hedge their bets) until the war reaches a tipping point. Then they will undoubtedly pick the eventual winner. If all goes to plan they will have no problem backing the MDC.

South Africa on the other hand is a different kettle of fish: the ANC is on ZANU-PF's side for ideological and 'African-looter-solidarity' reasons. The ANC believe that liberation movements have a god-given right to rule, and that labour unions should not get involved in politics (except when it is to support them). To that end it would rather destroy South Africa (and Zimbabwe) than hand it over to the vagaries of a democratic system in which no party can dominate forever.

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