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Wednesday, 28 January 2009

He could go either way, but...

Why I say Tsvangirai will still say 'No!'

Commentators worldwide are trying to guess which way Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of Zimbabwe's Movement for Democratic Change, will jump. Will he finally sign-up to the so-called power-sharing agreement with Robert Mugabe? Or will he remain defiant, ignore the urging of the weak-minded SADC leaders at the weekend, and hold out yet again for a genuinely democratic deal?

The international pressure on the embattled leader is tremendous. But my sources tell me that, after the party meeting due to be held tomorrow, Friday, Tsvangirai will reject the advice of some of his own senior party members, and say 'No'. 

He will be supported in this view by hardliners like Secretary-General Tendai Biti, spokesman Nelson Chamisa and Blessing Chebundo, who believe that the latest SADC deliberations solved none of the outstanding issues between the two sides.

But others, including Election Secretary Ian Makone and Vice-President Thokozani Khupe, will argue that the party should join the unity government, and then "fight from within" - a plan that brings to mind the fate of Joshua Nkomo's ZAPU, which was "merged" with Mugabe's Zanu-PF in 1987, only to lose all power and credibility.

The MDC instead visualise that, with another rejection of the deal, the issue will be discussed at the meeting of the African Union on Sunday. It is anticipated that this meeting will probably echo the SADC meeting, but hopefully the UN will then deliberate on the issue, perhaps calling for a new round of elections in Zimbabwe. And the fight will continue.

This is what my sources tell me. They may be wrong. It remains possible that Morgan Tsvangirai will sign up as Prime Minister in the shadow of Mugabe's Presidency within the next two weeks. He will leave many of his supporters surprised and disappointed if he does.

I prefer to repeat the well-chosen words of MDC spokesman Nelson Chamisa, who said on Tuesday: "The mistake that Zanu-PF is making is to imagine that we are desperate to be in the government. We are not in a hurry to be chauffeur-driven. We are a people-driven party."

Well said, Nelson.


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Recently, Morgan Tsvangirai and other senior MDC officials have been photographed wearing rather expensive suits and travelling round in rather expensive vehicles. Is it possible they have finally been corrupted?

Tsvangirai must be coming under pressure from all sides and certainly from within his own party. I for one hope he holds out.


I agree with Moses, he should absolutely hold out, this is exactly what Mugabe did at Lancaster House, he took threatened to 'go back the bush' and wait. I predict that the country is on the verge of total civic collapse, they have now abandoned their currency and the govt will not find forex quick enough to pay the army, if the MDC are part of that govt they will be blamed. Tsvango is walking into a crisis which he has PM will be obliged to deal with with both hands tied behind his back.

I understand the pressure he is under from SADC, but he should see them as the useless players that they are, the timing of the AU meeting on Sunday is prefectr, and if they do nothing the new US administration will likely push harder at the UNSC.

Unfortunately it seems a lot more sufgfering will be necessary before any meaningful action happens, such is Africa!

It now appears from the latest news, Tsvangirai has chosen to sup with the devil!
and it will be interesting to observe his eventual fate.

Now at least, Zimbabwe will be able to get on more quickly with the business of dying.

Yep, RM. The problem now is that it will be even more heartbreaking because people will get their hopes up, Zimbabwe will make a slight recovery and collapse yet again in 18 months when their is supposedly going to be a new election. And if the MDC manages to secure international assistance, and the health, education and financial situation improves - ZANU-PF will claim the credit.
This is quite frankly a lose-lose situation for Zimbabwe and the MDC.

But for months now it has been clear that the MDC had precious little choice. It had nothing and nobody to call upon for support. And they were not going to be supported by the docile Zimbabwean masses.

ZANU-PF has South Africa and SADC and pretty much a blank cheque from the ANC to do what it likes. Might has won over right.

Very surprising move, if he was going to enter a unity government why didn't he do it 6 months ago? There must have been some concessions made by ZANU-PF that we don't know about yet.

It didn't take Mutambara long to get his begging cup out either!

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