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Sunday, 07 December 2008

Invasion alert!

Armed intervention is now on the cards - here's why

Zambia, one of Zimbabwe's neighbouring countries, stations its crack 2nd battalion troops at the Tug Argan barracks in the Copperbelt city of Ndola. Zambia's Commandos are at the nearby Mushili depot. Recently both units have been training, in joint operations with the army of Botswana, another of our neighbouring states. The prospect - nothing less than the armed invasion of Zimbabwe.

This scenario has grown more and and more likely over the past few days, as the tone of international condemnation of Robert Mugabe becomes strident, and the possibility of armed intervention in Zimbabwe is at last given serious consideration.

Those famous voices who previously called for negotiations are now calling for action. Former Archbishop Desmond Tutu, Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, even ponderous British Prime Minister Gordon Brown - all have declared that enough is enough.

These tough-talking leaders have clearly and jointly reached the conclusion that Zimbabwe is collapsing and its people suffering unforgivably - something that commentators such as your own Moses Moyo have been telling them for months, even years.

It's the appalling cholera epidemic, first highlighted on this site, that has brought them to this conclusion. It has taken the pitiful and highly preventable deaths of thousands of innocent Zimbabweans to remove the scales from their eyes.

Underlying the many tough statements this last weekend was the unmistakable implication that if Mugabe can't be persuaded to step down - and he can't - then the next step is armed intervention. But not by troops from America, or Britain, or anywhere in Europe.

The unspoken rule is that such military action cannot, for all the usual historical and political reasons, be taken by White troops, from White countries. The soldiers who cross the border into Zimbabwe must be African. And as South Africa, under its wishy-washy leadership, cannot be relied upon, we expect it will be our brothers from Botswana and Zambia who will be asked to lead the way.

My source in Zambia told me: "Our forces are fully equipped, especially with Ak47's and Katyusha rocket launchers and tanks. The plan is for Botswana troops and Zambian units to invade simultaneously from their own borders, catching Mugabe's men in a pincer movement."

He told me that there would certainly be public enthusiasm in both Zambia and Botswana for an enforced end to the Zimbabwean dictatorship. For months economic and political refugees have crowded across the borders of both countries. Now they still come - and they bring cholera with them.

Zambia observers also believe that the fight, if it came to one, would not be a long one. Zimbabwe's troops, as also revealed exclusively on these pages, are already rioting, and staging pitched battles with police in the Harare streets. They are thought to have no stomach for a battle to save Mugabe.

Meanwhile the international calls for action have also included a suggestion that Mugabe be brought to trial at the international court at the Hague. But, I must point out, that won't happen if we get our hands on him first. We have a swifter justice to exact.

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Comments

Moses, I'm sure you have your sources and you believe them to be reliable. I remain skeptical. I don't think the 'wall' of African solidarity crumbles this easily.

If Botswana and Zambia are so principled as to lend lives and money to a war to remove the Mugabe tyranny, where was their resolve to stand up to Mbeki and South Africa at the last SADC summit? That would have cost nothing, and shown the world that Africas leaders can stand up to murderers and thugs.

What made them at the last minute 'in the intrest of consensus' decide to urge the MDC to water down their electoral victory by siding with Mugabe's demands?

Perhaps the leadership in SA is wavering as you say. But that is a domestic issue. What is not in question is who they support in Zimbabwe. The only problem is how to make it APPEAR that they are being even-handed and interested in solving the Zimbabwe crisis. The South Africa solution is and has always been to bury the MDC(T). No MDC(T): problem solved.

Botwana and Zambia may be amassing troops on their borders but not for an invasion. I suspect this is a case of self-preservation. When Zimbabwe implodes - which they must think is going to be soon - they don't want hordes of cholera infested refugees storming through the borders. They will deploy their armed forces to ensure the Zimbabweans stay in Zimbabwe or as close to the borders as possible.

Maybe cynical, but is this invasion fantasy just not another example of Zimbos expecting other countries to do their dirty work for them?

I agree with DC. I believe that neither Zambia nor Botswana have the stomach for an invasion of Zimbabwe, nor the necessary military tactical know-how. With South Africa (under Mugabe's friend Mbeki) still standing on the side-lines, we have reached an uneasy impasse. It is clear that until Mbeki leaves the office of presidency nothing will happen, & Zimbabwe's woes will continue, as the rest of the world watches on. It is deeply sickening for me to see the lack of decisive action in the face of such an unfolding tragedy.

Both DC and MG are probably correct, the movement of Botswana and Zambian troops to their borders with Zimbabwe are being conducted out of self preservation to control the movement of refugees.

It would be a extremely interesting scenario if it was a prelude to an invasion. USA backing the two external armies while mainland China backed the Zimbabwean army! it could even lead to some sort of third world conflict played out on the continent of Africa.

I believe your report is just so sensational to be true. Where are you getting all this from? You believe that both Zambia and Botswana can wage a proper war against Zimbabwe. Do your research first and see how unlikely this is.

One all this is just talking for the media it is known no one in the region beats Zimbabwe on guerilla war fare and what does Botswana know about fighting honestly? No one in SADC for the record is prepared to go to war against each other much as we would want them to. It just won't happen not in SADC.

Let us not raise people's hopes over nothing. No military intervention from SADC country is going to take place in Zimbabwe no matter how much we want. This we can just forget as simple as that. Come up with other stories that are more plausible.

I've been saying for a long time that it's up to Zimbos to act, not to wait for some half-baked 'solution' from outside its own borders.

Amazingly, there was a time in history when Zimbos took action and went to war against a dictatorial regime. Even more amazingly, it was in my lifetime.

Come on Zim! You've done it once, get off your ar#$ and do it again.

It is probably the best solution for Zimbabwe given the current circumstances, but unlikely. I wish I was wrong.

There's the answer, on this Tuesday 9th December the AU has rejected any further tougher steps against Zimbabwe.

Herewith some interesting quotes from End Game Zimbabwe by Lester Venter SA.

It is true, as is frequently pointed out, that those around Mugqabe are
sustained by access to foreign exchange and the last resources of the state.
But even these are dwindling. When there is no more coin in the realm -
local or foreign - the game is up.

The pyramid of patrimony that is constructed from tribal loyalty at its
base, the civil service above that, and the power elite above that, in turn,
is what sustains Mugabe at its pinnacle. It will soon be too corroded to
hold him up any longer.

Mugabe's fall may now be sooner than anyone expects, and it is worth
speculating on what will transpire when he is toppled.
Mugabe will probably retreat into sanctuary offered by one of the many
countries that have supported him - just as he has given sanctuary these
past years to Mengistu, convicted of genocide by his home courts in
Ethiopia. It is a sobering thought that there will probably be many eager
for the perceived honour of receiving Mugabe.

The departure of Mugabe will take care of the immediate problem. But to say
that Mugabe is the problem is not the same as saying that Morgan Tsvangirai
is the solution. True enough, the opposition leader has shown considerable
mettle in recent time in the way he has resisted Mugabe's attempts to
steamroller his movement. In great measure, though, Tsvangirai has gained
stature by default in the unconscious comparison made against his tormentor.
In addition, a careful examination of his record shows that steadfastness
and great depths of virtuous leadership have not always characterised
Tsvangirai.
So, however the political dice roll from here on, Zimbabwe's prospects are
depressing. There is nothing, really, to be done now to change that.
Zimbabwe took the wrong turning in history some time back.

Then, not enough people to make a difference looked far enough down the road
to see where the unfortunate land would be today. The opportunity to change
course was back then. It's gone now.

Surely Botswana and Zambia are not going to remove Robert Mugabe using armed forces and we all know that.The best way to remove Mugabe is for SADC and AU to isolate him completely, now that Cholera has exposed how bad and cruel he is to his own people he must GO!GO!
One way to get rid of Mugabe and his cronies is for countries with their bank accounts to close them and keep the money for Zimbabwe after Mugabe.
Zimbabweans in Diaspora should stop sending money and fuel back home,because this continues to sustain Zanu-PF.The world should stop calling Mugabe `President`! They should know that he lost all the elections from 2000 onwards.MDC-T is the people's choice and should form the government in waiting.I agree, Zimbabweans must rise up now while the situation is still hot.

ZAMBIA CAN'T INVADE ZIMBABWE

THE Government of Zambia has denied reports that it has joined forces with Botswana to invade Zimbabwe and forcibly remove President Robert Mugabe from power.
Kabinga Pande is minister of foreign affairs. He said that the report, which was published on http://www.zimbabwetoday.co.uk and dated 7 December 2008 was malicious because Zambia has committed to working within the framework of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) decision in resolving the situation in Zimbabwe.
He was speaking in the capital Lusaka, at a press briefing with his counterpart George Mpombo from the ministry of defence.
Mr Pande said the online report was malicious.
“I wish to add that Zambia is committed to the spirit of dialogue and co-operation which are enshrined in the regional and continental charters to which we are a state party,” he said.
Mr Pande said the government of Zambia believes that peace and stability in Zimbabwe could only be achieved through dialogue among the stakeholders.
Mr Pande said it was not feasible for Zambia to agitate for military invasion in Zimbabwe.
“These provocative insinuations should therefore be dismissed with the contempt they deserve as they are indeed baseless and false,” he said.
He said suspicions were that the website was created by Zimbabweans who were not living in that country.
And Mr Mpombo said that it was unthinkable for Zambia, which worked hard to liberate Zimbabwe to push for regime change through the use of force.
“The allegations are a complete political hogwash and there is no truth in these allegations. Our role is to help Zimbabwe overcome the problems and this is through dialogue and not as a way of military intervention. We can not move away from the SADC position,” he said.
In the article, it is alleged that Zambia’s commandoes at Mushili area of Ndola have been training in joint operations with the army in Botswana with the view of invading Zimbabwe.
The story quotes anonymous sources in Zambia. It adds that Zambians are equipped with AK 47 riffles and rocket launchers.

Moses, the most powerful man in the Old Testament who gave us the 10 commandments was a noble and great man. But you,to the contrary, are a miserable propagating country hating war monger who would like nothing for countries to hate one another because you have failed to resolve your own useless problems in your country. I will assume that you do not even live in Zimbabwe but is trying to be the all knowing guru to that country.

Zambia and Zimbabwe have ALWAYS been and always WILL be good friends. We, as Zambia have ALWAYS defended Zimbabwe even where we had no cause to. It's called mutual respect for one another. We are brothers and sisters only separated by a border and no way can we attack our own 'blood'.

You definitely need to make a public apology for this malicious newsletter you have published and look elsewhere to gain mileage on your futile cause. In fact, go back to Zimbabwe and fight from within there. Champion your cause there. Don't utter nonsense and put your fellow people at risk of dying in unnecessary wars while you sit back in your arm chair and point fingers at people as causers of war.

In fact, should something happen, you should personally be hunted down for genocide.

This is the most useless thing I have heard this year. what a bad way of ending the year. Surely Zambia and Botswana cannot attack Zimbabwe to remove Mugabe. Khama said the only way to push for fresh elections in Zim is for neigbhouring countries to close their borders. Zambia has not made any official comments on the problems of Zim apart from the one the Late Mwanawasa(Rest in Peace) where he said 'Zimbabwe is a sinking TITANIC' I stand to be challenged on this matter. Research before you alarm the friends of SADC. Idiots

Mugabe has reached a point at which he is fearing his own shadows. He can not be protected any more by anyone. I think he will finally end up at the Hague because he now has no friends to support him or protect him. Mbeki is now a nonentity lost in the crowd. ANC is changing with different people who have no commonality with Mugabe. He looks like he has no country interested in him anymore. Currently only Angola has a president with some sympathy with him. He might think of going to Malaysia, but he won't easily fit in because political atmosphere is also changing in that part of the world.

Basically, Mugabe would like to go. But things have changed so much so that his ministers and generals are failing to sleep. They don't know where they will go should the wind of change blow across Zim. They know the new Govt will let the law visit them. No one is willing to take them for asylum because they can easily be handed back to Zim courts. The wife also can't go anywhere once Mugabe dies. She is also fearing being charged for various corruption offences and misappropriation of Govt properties (money)

People will not treat them with respect once out of power. ZANU-PF will breath it last air in power once Mugabe goes. The so called war veterans will loose their status too.

There are lots of people who know their days will be hard after Baba mukuru is gone.

I can see slowly change is coming. No one can arrest the wheels of change. When everybody start talking about him going, then you know that what used to be a taboo is now a common mans language. Time has come and you can't buy time once yours is over. If he had eyes he would have seen it coming a long time. If he had ears he would have heard the wind of change blowing. But because he is blind and deaf, he will fall in a ditch.

Haahahahaha, I think the owner of this site is a very desperate Zimbabwean. I wouldn't blame you man, yjings are quite tough in your country Zim. Botswana and Zambia will have to lose common sense to engange in such an activity. Do you think war would be as simple as entering from the boarders of Botswana and Zambia, run up to Harare and apprehend him and hand him over to Hague? NO my brother, it's more than that and calls for more loses of which Zambia and Botswana are not ready to pay. What will Botswana and Zambia gain in envading Zimbabwe? Zimbabwe is "finished", has no sea cost and it is at the moment not hindering anything tangible for the two neighbours. If war was to break out as you are day dreaming, it will involve Russia, China and USA of which these guys are aware of. As a matter of fact, no country wants Zimbabwe's RGM, let alone SADC and AU. The problem is that these guys won't entervene. Mbeki is the one holding RGM at the moment, should he go and SADC and AU shun RGM, that will be the fall of the great RGM. As others have already said, just wait for time to have it's course, the Zimbabweans don't have much of a choice at the moment with those rulers sorrounding RGM but time is slowly coming. Nice try anyway, just look on the bright side of reality and stop day dreaming, :D.

Sophie Zvapera | Monday, 08 December 2008 at 13:22

Excuse me, no one beats Zimbabwe at guerilla warfare? To begin with, who trained these so called Zimbabwean guerillas, was it not Zambia? And by the way, the liberation war for Zimbabwe was waged in the 1970s, how many of the so called war veterans are still young and energetic enough t go back to the bush and and pick up a fight with belly full and chorela free Bots and Zambs? None! Most of them are dead and for those still alive, they are riddled either with post malnutrition or chorela and no wonder looking at most of the scum of the world swelling the rank and file of the veteran farm raiding parties, most are just kids born long after 1980 and do not even know how to operate an AK47.

Well said duke some people think fighting guerrila wars for 30 years means they become experts how ever they will just be usedup like old soap. Today an american messenary is just 21 to 30 years old and is a fighting machine any person can fight in any war there is no qualification or historic qualities military intelligence comes with learning and any person can learn and perform. Battles are won and lost remove the ndundundu mind of hving gone thru wars and think you are the best. can any one tell me which war did zimbabwe win ? if it won the battles without the assistance of other gorvernment mission assistance? so stop talking war and stop boasting too nobody enjoys dying including the soldier or an activist.

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