"Invasion? What invasion?"

You may not believe in it. But we know someone who does

The spirited response to my forecast of a possible invasion of Zimbabwe from Zambia and Botswana would seem to indicate that many observers simply don't believe it can happen, and I am grateful to DC, Martin Gower, RMacleod and Sophie Zvapera for their input. They may of course be right. But I have evidence that the supreme leader himself, R. Mugabe, is not so sure.

My sources within the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO) tell me that days before my piece appeared, the agency had submitted a report to Mugabe's office specifically accusing both Zambia and Botswana of offering their lands as "launching pads" for a military attack.

The spies apparentl;y believe that such an attack would be led by Britain - an indication of paranoia amongst the ranks of the spies when you remember that the UK's troops are already fully committed in other parts of the world.

A senior member of the Zimbabwe Army Intelligence (if that's not a contradiction in terms) also told me: "The reports we are receiving indicate that Zambia and Botswana have offered to help in the invasion, and that it would be imminent,"

The same source said that Mugabe had reacted to the reports by ordering a country-wide tightening of security, and specifically calling on military chiefs to put all border forces on high alert.

I then spoke to a senior member of the Police Suport Unit who said: "Most of our border patrol officers will be receiving their rations this week, and they will join up with the national army during the coming days, to intensify an armed presence on the borders."

Meanwhile the Army has reacted to the troop riots of last week by printing and distributing extra money. A soldier told me: "We were told to write down our names in the morning, and in the afternoon we received Z$100 million at the barracks. The money was not part of our monthly salaries. We were also told that the government was sorry for overlooking our grievances, and that things will change."

Our soldiers will draw two conclusions from this:  one, that things won't change, and two, that rioting works. Watch out for further direct action from our gallant troops.

On the international front, while demands for direct action, if only to combat the ever-growing cholera epidemic, continue, the African Union has predictably dismissed any military move, and repeated the mantra that the only way forward is through negotiations. Perhaps the Union really believes that is true. Perhaps.

Meanwhile, to those who do not believe in a military solution from outside our borders, can I put this question:  Two years ago, would you have believed that the world would allow our beloved country to descend to its present tragic, brutal and disastrous state without interfering?

Comments

[Mathews]

It is total madness to suggest that Zambia is part, if any, of the plot to invade Zimbabwe. Whoever fabricated such a rumour is not being fair to his conscious as well as to Zambia.

I do not agree with Kennedy who I am sure is a Journalist at a private community TV station that a military invasion would not be a bad idea.

I wish to ask the proponents of a military invasion to tell the world, which country has ever experienced peace and prosperity after an invasion? In as much as some of as do not agree with Mugabe's behaviour, war against his government is and will never be a solution to the problems in that country.

My view is that in the mordern age, the most mature way to settle disputes is through dialogue. Zimbabweans have suffered enough and it is not fair to subject them to more suffering by proposing a military invasion.

Kennedy it is dangerous to agree with people whose motives in Zimbabwe are not known. Do not make a fool out of yourself by blindly supporting ideas being paddled by the causers of the problems Zimbabwe is going through. I, however, respect your opinion though its wrong.

[mwanamuchende]

Zambia is a peace loving nation. We believe that peace is our air and without it we can not live. Honestly we zambian ve tried so hard to help our brothers and sisters from zimbabwe who are loaming our streets and night clubs. we know that mugabe is the source of all the suffering in zimbabwe and in my opinion, he must be removed from power to pave way for a new zimbabwe. This however is not to say that we intend to invade zimbabwe. Military intervention to the zimbabwean situation will only acceralate the many sufferings of our brothers and sisters in that country and in the end we will see more of these hungry, pale and gloomy faces on the streets of lusaka. If you Zimbabweans want military intervetion, tell your own soldiers who are harrassing innocent people on the street to go and harrass mugabe. i can assure you that if they did that, their problems will be sorted out.

[juvenilus]

This talk of zambia wanting to invade Zimbabwe, is a total lot of hogwash. Zambia has always been a peace loving country, never sunk into internal strife like many other African Countries. We dont fight out nieghbours, we dialogue.

[Yuss]

The problem with fake Zimbabwe newsmen living in the UK is that they like dreaming.

[Zambian]

"Mr MOYO"
Dear Sir
I am made to believe that your name MOYO means life. It is expected of someone with a name like yours to write about issues that promote MOYO (LIFE) rather than instigate war between counties for the sole purpose of selling news.
I wish to urge Zambian leaders tasked to handle these issues to be proactive by not merely holding joint press briefings (Pande and Mpombo) but to show and prove that we do not intend to do what that war manniac Moses Moyo is suggesting. Send a high level delegation to Zim and confer with Comrade Mugabe assuring him of your position. You need not get permission from SADC or AU to diffuse this hoax time bomb set by that war monger Moses Infa not Moyo.
As citizens of Zambia we will persue Moses as a war crimminal who has sent fears in the minds of many Zambians that have read his article causing pain and anguish. May be he is a political opponent of Comrade Mugabe- who knows.
Mind what you publish Moyo because such issues may border on treason.Even if you may be of another nationality if you commit a treasonable offence against a sovereign country be ready for the consequences.War propaganda is not good especially where you name nations you feel are to take part. Think twice before things get out of hand. TELL US THE TRUE TRUTH AND NOT THE TRUTH which you reported.
By concerned Zambian from Zambia.11.12.08 14.58 hrs Zambian time.

[Chembe Malumba]

Mugabe has had enough of his tyrany and babaric rule.Who is mugabe that he should put the lives of millions of Zimbabweans at stake.
His days are numbered and his tyranic rule is soon coming to an end.
I wouldnt mind if I where invited to join the armis of galant soldiers matching to envade Zimbabwe with apourpose of overthrowing Mugabe.
Surely the International court of justice is the right destination for mugabe.

Nicholas Mwansa
Zambia

[Sililo Akafumba]

The report alledging Zambia/Botswana will be invading Zimbabwe is totally untrue and has no facts. Zambia has its own problems to solve and I do not think they have the time and interest to start an unprofitable war with their neighbour. The Zambian army does engage in military training or exercises with various other countries, or indeed on its own with instructors from America etc, and that wont amount to preparing to invade Zim. If any joint military training was being undertaken, then that could just be a coincidence with the Zim problems.
My message to all Zims is just to dismiss this article with all the contempt. I believe, Robert Mugabe will go away when all ZXims are fully convinced that he is now irrelevant and does not even a single vote will be given to him, then rigging will not be possible. Anyhow, guys enjoy yourselves in Zim.

[mumanga]

Zambian decision to invade zimbabwe will just cause a lot more than the already existing problems in that country instead of trying to help the poor people of that country from cholera and stavertion .we as the people of zambia are a peacefull, christinian nation and will not support our goverment to helf shed more inocent blood in our neighbouring country. As the all world let us help our friend in zimbabwe and for the zambian goverment concentrate on inproving the lives of the zambian people especially this time when many of us are lossing our jobs and you are just watching , then you think you can help another country other than our ?

[Mary Chuma]

Whether Zambia, Botswana, Britain or America invade or not,one bold message is; MUGABE MUST GO. Period.

[kantu]

Zambia is for peace .we cant worst out time and resources even if donated by whosoever to destabilise our neighbours.we really love our neighbours and we understand their problems.Fighting is not the zambian way of resolving differences,we are a haven of peace even in our poverty.No bloodmoney is entertained in zambia.zambia and zimbabwe is like a cellphone and a simcard.we shall always pray for the good of zimbabweans and one day all will be well.May our Good Lord Bless us all.

[Pezzy Kudakwashe]

I strongly would like to add my voice to the many voices that are calling for change in Zimbabwe, but I do not agree with the idea of a military invasion for only one or two reasons. African leaders should not result to military action when they have not tried simple alternatives that would pressure Mugabe to submit. I mean, let’s start with sanctions, stiffer sanctions then depending on the results, we build up from there. When the late Mwanawasa was speaking about the problems in Zimbabwe, non of those so called SADC leaders openly stood up to support him. Today you speak of attacking Zimbabwe using Zambia or Botswana. That’s very shallow. Zambia and Zimbabwe’s relations go beyond their current leaders. Our tribes or people are connected in one way or another. If the British and the French or whoever is behind this sick idea, fail to unite the nation after removing Mugabe, what next? Who do they have in mind to replace Mugabe? Zambia depends greatly on Zimbabwe’s routes for her exports and imports. Who will help Zambia when the going gets tough? Already Zambia has been running to China for help and the so called redeemers of Zimbabwe are only doing it for their own selfish reasons.

[DC]

For those trying to avoid war please read this article from The Herald (Mugabe's mouthpeice):
http://www.zwnews.com/issuefull.cfm?ArticleID=19844.

Then read this:
http://www.zwnews.com/issuefull.cfm?ArticleID=19853

The war in already well underway. Peace at all costs is too high a price. Where are our Zambian and Botswana brothers and sisters now?

[chrysogo]

what would be the purpose of invading zimbabwe,just to remove mugabe? lord help us,no way would zambia resort to fight injustice with injustice hence end up destroying innocent lives in the end. the best solution that zambia would resort to is to make the man realise how much the people he is leading are dying and how he is leading them to death and then let his conscience help him through this and not threatening him as these threats makes him fear to even make progressive changes to his government such as involving the opposition fully because he is not sure who really wants to help his people and who really wants the best for his people.
no man is an island event his excellence Robert Mugabe knows this and thus why he has been attending some of these important summits whether people are against his going or not. dont you think such a thing potrails more than what we think.
come people lets get real.
zambia is in no better position to invade zimbabwe but negotiate and see that people no longer suffer there.
there is cholera there and do you think zambians woul want to put the lives of its millitary personel at risk,no way !

[pipedream]

Moses, If the people of Zimbabwe arn't prepared to fight for their freedom, why should anyone else?

[Jobrag]

If Western countries threatened to boycott the World cup in 2010 how long would it take for South Africa to deal with Mugabe?
Jobrag

[Oliver Chettle]

The answer to the final question is yes. I expected things to get this bad, and I would have been astonished if anything was done about it. The structure of the UN is an insurmountable problem to action, and the West will be unable to deal with African issues in an appropriate way at least until the 1960s generation is out of power, and probably much longer. The West is fatigued by Africa's problems, and Zimbabwe isn't in the top hundred political issues that the average person in the UK cares about. I should imagine that in the rest of the developed world, it is even less important by a couple of orders of magnitude.

Even those few of us in the west who do care about Zimbabwe, can see that intervening would be a thankless task. I've always said that we should stay out of it, and if we want to make a difference, the way to do it is to impose penalties, including withdrawal of aid, on SADC countries for supporting Mugabe. Even if it didn't work - and it probably wouldn't - the whole region would benefit in the long run if the west stopped feeding the kleptocracy.

[Oliver Chettle]

To reply to Mathews, many, many countries have experienced peace and prosperity after an invasion, post WWII Germany and Japan being the best examples. Throughout history, invasions have been the most common and effective way of removing decadent regimes. The pattern of invasions of China, South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe by nomadic tribes from the central Asian plains is arguably the most important dynamic in world history, and it has often been positive for the invaded countries. But invading Zimbabwe would not be worth the aggravation, partly because there are too people like Mathews in the contemporary world, who don't understand the positive role that the military overthrow of declining regimes has always played in human affairs, just as there were once too many people who didn't understand the positive value of military resistance to Hitler. Mankind pays a heavy price in unnecessary violence and oppression for the naive self-indulgence that is the pacifist instinct.

[Mbulawa]

For your information Alex Henderson the 4 biggest economies in the region in descending order are 1. South Africa GDP $330bn 2 Angola GDP $70bn 3. Botswana GDP $13.7bn and 4. Zambia GDP $13.1bn. You are dead wrong to claim that Zambia is bankrupt. Are you still stuck in the 80's?

[Macon]

One simple question to enlighten me. Is the situation that exists in Zim still considered by the SADC to be "an African solution to an African problem"?

If you hesitate or even stutter when you answer that question, there'll be not a drop of my blood invested, nor a pound of my money spent, to bring sanity and civilization back to Zim.

[Robert Chisenga]

We sacrificed a lot to liberate Zimbabwe.We can not be sucked into your affairs anymore.Our economy collapsed merely to see your country and SA free.Did you recognise our sacrifice?No! You were laughing at our women as they crossed into Zimbabwe for essential goods.Your problem is that you are too docile to solve your own internal problems.Leave Zambia out of your mess.We helped you once before but sorry we will not do it again.Our economy is back on track and we do not wish to jeopadise it for any other country. Zambia is our peace and loving country so leave us out of your conflicts.Mugabe, a tin pot dictator, is not our concern but yours!