Why Tsvangirai still says 'No!'

The latest talks in South Africa have failed - and here's why

Morgan Tsvangirai's supporters were relieved yesterday, Sunday, when it became clear that the Johannesburg meeting of the regional summit of South African leaders had failed to produce a solution to the Zimbabwe crisis. Many had begun to fear that if the MDC leader signed up to the agreement on the table, he would have fallen into a Mugabe trap.

The apparent sticking point, at this meeting and at the previous talks in a Harare hotel, has been the exact balance of power which would exist between Robert Mugabe as Head of State and Morgan Tsvangirai as Prime Minister of a transitional government.

Mugabe tempted Tsvangirai with the offer of responsibility for finance, health, education, transport, etc. But the President himself, far from being just a figurehead, would retain control of the police, the judiciary and the armed forces. And it is in this detail that the devil lies.

Tsvangirai's advisers have undoubtedly pointed out to him - if he hasn't seen it for himself - that if he signed up to the deal, he would be walking into a potentially fatal trap.

Using the police and the army, and of course the fearsome Central Intelligence Organisation, Mugabe's people would waste no time in inventing a fictional plot apparently designed to threaten the state. And Morgan Tsvangirai would find himself squarely in the frame.

As one political expert put it to me: "Once Tsvangirai was installed, it would be simple for Mugabe's generals and police chiefs and spies to fabricate charges against him, such as plotting a coup or an assassination attempt on the President.

"So-called 'witnesses' would be found and persuaded to testify against him. Tsvangirai would be arrested, and find himself in a rigged court, facing charges of treason and the death penalty."

At best the MDC leader and his party would be thrust into political limbo. And then where would we Zimbabweans find ourselves? Right back where we started.

Comments

[RMacleod]

At the moment it seems Tsvangiria and MDC are withstanding the pressure and maybe with a bit of luck Tsvangiria will persevere until the whole corrupt ZanuPF structure collapses. Perhaps also the prophecy of the coming turmoil within Zimbabwe by Phandu Skelemani will take place in the very near future and hasten the collapse.

[RMacleod]

Maybe cracks are beginning to appear within the party. Reports indicate Zanu PF officials are now looting tractors and farm implements in Gutu that were paid for by the Zimbabwe Reserve Bank for distribution among local black farmers. I wonder what Gono will think about it!

[Thomas Dickenson]

Would anyone be so stupid to even bother to consider any deal where Mugabe retained control of the Judiciary, Police and the Armed Forces and the 'joint' leader whoever that may be, had responsibility for finance, health, transport and education !!!
Mugabe in control of the 'Death Squads', that's just what he and Mbeki want it to be.
The only place for Mugabe is in the Court facing charges of Genocide, Murder and Corruption, along with his colleagues, Generals and Police cohorts.

[RMacleod]

Will there be an explosion or implosion?

Unemployment 80%.
Manufacturing nearly at a standstill.
No farms with competent farmers producing sufficient food crops.
Basic food now in very short supply.
Inflation 11,250 000% and accelerating.

Definitely nightmare material.

[Don Cox]

"Will there be an explosion or implosion?"

Or will China bail Mugabe out? I am sure China would like to get control of Zimbabwe's mines.

[Joyce]

This is my suggestion: Instead of going arround talking about talks(GNU or transitional) Why can't we just call it a day and call for a new free and fair presidential election Monitered by the following; UN,EU,AU,US,CHINA, RUSSIA,African parliament, the CATER CENTRE, and zimbabwean NGOs, Supervised by SADC, with two senior officials from each party. Funding will not be a problem even Botswana will choose to finance the whole process. What do you think guys?

[DC]

Joyce the answer to your question is the simple equation below:

free and fair election = annihilation of ZANU-PF

[RMacleod]

Threats are being made to convene the Zimbabwean parliament, but a parliament of what!
Along with the british Carrington, Mbeki and Mugabe are just a bunch of con artists, just hang in there Tsvangiria.