The agreement that never was

Hopes and fears of a controversial breakthrough come to nothing

There is no agreement between Mugabe's Zanu-PF and the MDC splinter group led by Arthur Mutumbara. After a night of rumours, statements and counter-statements, that much became clear here in Harare this morning, Wednesday. The talks on a future government for Zimbabwe remain deadlocked.

Earlier a statement by a Zanu-PF delegate claimed that the tiny MDC splinter group had agreed a separate deal with Mugabe, which would have excluded the main MDC leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, from any incoming government of national unity.

But this was initially denied by Mutumbara's own spokesman, Welshman Ncube, and later also dismissed by the mediator at the Harare talks, President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa.

Mbeki told reporters that the talks had paused to allow Tsvangirai to consider proposals that have been put to him. Tsvangirai himself was silent, but looked grave as he left the downtown Harare hotel where the talks are being held. There is no news of when they will resume.

Comments

[RMacleod]

Comments can be made about this or made about that, but it is all so very simple, if Mugabe stays there is zero, zilch, nothing, if Mugabe steps down and faces the music there will be aid and cash! it is so elementary.

[Andrew]

I get the impression that Tsvango is not only negotiating/wrestling power from Mugabe but also Mbeki. Not only is Mugabe's sincerity in question, so is Mbeki's, not only is Mugabe desperate for a face saving exit, so is Mbeki, not only are the economic consequences of failed talks unthinkable to Zimbabwe, so are they to South Africa. He must be under extreme pressure from both to accept their lopsided conditions and ink a deal that will ultimately solve nothing. Whatever happened to the additional parties (as per the MoU) to the talks, like the UN envoy and AU rep. The Mubeki pair are trying once more to hoodwink the MDC and the World, they take us all for fools!

[DC]

Well put Andrew.

Yes, they are playing us for fools and Tsvangirai has entered these negotiations probably knowing that the odds are stacked heavily against a just settlement.

But ultimately Mbeki and Mugabe both know that the only people who need to be satisfied are the the majority of the AU - and as we already know they will accept anything provided it looks like a democratic result.

The West will in all likelihood have to concede 'defeat' when the AU endorses the lopsided GNU and release some token aid and remove targetted sanctions to avoid losing African support in the UN etc in other matters.

Another 'African solution to an African problem'.

[Chris]

Nobody has mentioned the potentail role Arthur is playing in all of this. Why anyone thinks that this will result in anything other than a complete sham is beyond me. Mugabe won't accept second best, the JOC won't accept anyone other than their man, and Mbeki just wants to look good. Reading the Herald article today suggests to me that nothing has changed, and the negotiation is being manipulated (what a surprise!). Oh, and the BBC says that Morgan's passport has been confiscated at the airport. Obviously, someone (Mbeki) doesn't want the truth known about what is happening behind closed doors. Back to Mutumbara....will he succumb to the lure of filthy lucre and sell his mates up the river???

[chris]

....or is it down the river? Whatever it is, it will end in tears!

[RMacleod]

Neither Mugabe or his cronies are going to relinquish power voluntarily or by negotiation, it would simply be suicide on their part to do so. This is reflected in the some of the sticking points (BBC) during the talks.

The balance of power between Mugabe and Tsvangiria.
The make up of the coalition cabinet.
The control of the security forces.
Amnesty over the post election violence.

I suspect previous criminal action (Ndebele massacre) which the British establishment would rather forget, is also on the agenda.

PS According to the latest news, Tsvangiria has got his passport back.

[Joyce]

RMacleod and Andrew you are not far from the kingdom.
Halelujah Tsvangirai realised the mistake of trying to save both Mbeki and Mugabe. The MOU was drafted by Jonathan Moyo with the help of Mutambara, Mbeki,Chinamasa and Welshman Ncube, trying to trick the MDC into their direction.
Welldone Zimbabwe these talks has proved that Zimbabweans are not just educated by wise and cleaver to see traps before trapped
Mbeki is in seriuos political chaos. As Mwanawasa said Zimbabwean government is like a sinkining titanic, and Mbeki is failing to see that he is now captaining it.Keep it up Zimbabwe

[Peter Wilson]

Hi Moses,

Would you please contact me. I work for index on censorship and we would like to be able to email you.

PW

[Andrew]

As an ex-Zim based in Asia I've been closely following every new twist in this protracted saga, and each time we all have a new theory on how best to deal with this mercurial Mugabe. Frankly, at this juncture it seems clear that the remaining real solution is to do nothing towards finding a solution. Mugabe's Zimbabwe is so far in the shit that it's got to collapse soon - this year. Pressure should be kept up and the MDC can sit at the negotiating table for the sake of co-operation, but as long as Mugabe and Mbeki are unable to realise that a power shift is necessary, there is not going to be a deal worth signing. The MDC should not let Mbeki pressure them into a deal - he's as guilty as Mugabe for this mess - if they can sit tight, inflation and an unpaid army are going to bring Mugabe down in the most dramatic fashion. It's going to be messy, and possibly bloody (what freedom in Africa wasn't won in spilt blood), but I relish the sight of Mugabe losing all control and Mbeki losing all face, neither deserve anything positive from these talks and Africa will be better off with both of them exiting the stage soon.

[DC]

Andrew

The problem with sitting tight and waiting for the collapse is that the MDC risk being marginalised in any emergent new order.

The new order I see coming out of total collapse is the JOC taking 'obvious' control rather than control 'behind the scenes'. In other words an actual military coup. The MDC will never be able to negotiate with this kind of arrangement.

It is only the threat of censure by some African countries that prevents an actual military coup now. That threat may be more palatable to the JOC if the country were to collapse to the point that Tsvangirai were in imminent control of the entire country.

In other words, letting the country collapse to a drastic state, may push the JOC to take drastic steps.

But when all is said and done, I think pushing the country to the brink is the best thing to do. The consequences can be dealt with - maybe a (proper) 3rd Chimurenga.