Why the talks are heading for deadlock

The gap between the MDC and Zanu-PF shows no sign of narrowing

The much-heralded talks between Mugabe's men and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) got underway in Pretoria on Thursday, but it became increasingly clear over the weekend that there remains a seemingly unbridgeable divide between Morgan Tsvangirai and the President.

According to my sources in South Africa, a range of issues exists over which the two sides are a million miles from reaching agreement. Specifically, it is the following demands of both that divide them.

Mugabe insists that in any new government he must remain as executive president, though he is prepared to agree to Tsvangirai becoming either vice-president, or Prime Minister under him.

He insists that all sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union be lifted before meaningful agreement can be reached. And he wants an undertaking that the so-called Land Reform Programme, which observers agree began Zimbabwe's economic collapse, be deemed irreversible.

Tsvangirai, in contrast, insists that, in a transitional government, Mugabe, although remaining President, must lose all his executive powers. He wants new elections to be scheduled for two years' time, to be supervised by the African Union and SADC.

His representatives at the talks will also tell the Zanu-PF delegation that Tsvangirai plans a land audit, which will lead to compensation to be paid to dispossessed white farmers, and for action to be taken against Mugabe's men who grabbed more than one farm.

But the major stumbling block between the two sides comes down to one thing: immunity or otherwise for Mugabe's associates, particuarly those who initiated and organised the murderous violence that has rocked the country since the elections.

Mugabe insists that his henchman escape prosecution, and are granted amnesty if a newly formed government of national unity attempts to arrest them.

Tsvangirai insists that the guilty men must answer for the deaths of more than 100 MDC activists, the wounding of thousands, and the displacement of tens of thousands.

His policy chief Eddie Cross said in Pretoria that the fate of the Mugabe perpetrators would top the agenda in the talks, despite the fact that it was not mentioned in the Memorandum of Understanding signed last week.

It is these issues, these huge divides, that currently separate the two parties. Many believe that there is no realistic chance of any true agreement being reached. They say that the only result can be either Tsvangirai's ultimate failure to save the country or the complete humiliation of Robert Mugabe.

But at least they're still talking.

Comments

[Andrew]

All negotiations, even for a simple market sale, begin with lofty opening gambits.

Therefore, by process of elimination you can assume that the lifting of sanctions and the prosecution of Zanu PF henchmen are not realistically achievable and can be struck off the list.

Mugabe is mostly interested in his ego and exit strategy and will therefore want to remain as president (the guy who gets to fly to the AU meetings), stepping down under his own steam. Tsvangarai will want to be Prime Minister and not just a puppet, if a delicately balanced government is assembled beneath them, an uneasy truce might be possible while they get used to each other and realise that as a team everyone can be better off.

The violence has to stop otherwise the people will not accept it, that Mugabe must know and he has little to lose in calling in his men. Tsvango might have to concede that some of the 4,000 seized farms will have to be gifted to Mugabe's clique as a compromise but he's right to insist on an audit otherwise the agricultural sector will never get back on its feet.

A deal is possible, if they argue long enough, and I suspect the longer they talk the more apparent, from the final collapse of the economy around them (imminent within weeks I suspect), a resolution is the only option.

Ultimately time is on the MDCs side, which I suspect is why Mugabe has agreed to rushed talks, within weeks the soldiers will be wanting bank notes that the government simply won't have. That might just be the final straw.

[Joyce]

These are just talks to relief Mugabe from presure. I cannot see Mugabe even in my impossible dreams talking to loose power nor Tsvangirai to fail the people.

Botswana is ready to support a struggle in Zimbabwe, there is nothing you can expect from a neighbour who is saying you are not the legitimate father of that family- This is war??

[RMacleod]

Joyce,you are probably right as there certainly is a military build up going on in Botswana. The main worry would be military intervention by the Chinese. But which ever way you look at it, Zimbabwe is in its final death throes.

[Mike]

Surprisingly, nowhere do I see discussed the obvious: Is ZANU-PF leadership ready for a real war? The military leadership has for years enjoyed a safe environment and become accustomed to breakfast in bed. Are they ready to sleep under the stars and fear for their own lives? Without petrol, food, and money, how long could they fight any invaders? The international reporting of non-stop MDC abductions and murders and the stories of starvation will propel the international community into military intervention, directly or indirectly. Ominous for ZANU-PF is the disappearance in December 2008 of their front door pitt bull, Mbeki. No military assistance will be available when Zuma and the Tswango-friendly trade unionists take charge in 5 months. Are the ZANU-PF generals, mentally even, ready to face their last stand?

[DC]

Joyce, I haven't heard about the Botswana military build-up, but if that is the case, it does not implicitly mean that help is at hand for Zimbabwe.

I think, that nowithstanding the lack of recognition of the ruling junta in Zimbabwe by the Botswana government, the militarisation of the border is for Botswana's protection - not Zimbabwe's.

Botswana troops are being boosted to prevent Mugabe's thugs crossing the border to attack the vast refugee camps that will soon develop on the Botswana side of the border. Botswana troops will never enter Zimbabwe. The troops may also help the control the flow of refugees and assist with the logistical needs of so many Zimbabweans.

When the shit finally hits the fan, the 'war' will not be a conventional war.

ZANU-PF's 'war' tactics have been and always will be broad based ethnic/political cleansing by quasi-state organised militia eg, war vets, green bombers.

So the notion that the ZDF generals will have to return to the bush to fight a war is mute: they don't have to, the war vets and green bombers will do their dirty work for a daily plate of sadza. All the generals have to do is provide the transport and other logistical mechanisms, and the police to turn a blind eye to any atrocities. This they already do.

In this scenario Zimbabwe does not need a peacekeeping force. Because there is no war and probably never will be. Zimbabwe actually needs a 'protection' force - to protect Zimbabweans from its' own government. That protection will also probably never come without complete solidarity from SADC (even with ZUMA I think SA is going to be generally pro-ZANU-PF - or belatedly impartial, when the time for impartiality will have passed).

[Roberto]

Who says Robert Mugabe doesn't have a sense of humor?

http://politicomix.blogspot.com/2008/07/who-says-robert-mugabe-doesnt-have.html

[McleanEstella]

Don't you acknowledge that it's high time to receive the personal loans, which will make you dreams real.