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Wednesday, 25 June 2008

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RMacleod

I think some of the facts that must be faced are :

Mugabe will not give up power, voluntary or otherwise no matter how much non-. military pressure is applied.

Mugabe is and will continue to be supported by Mbeki.

Mbeki’s fundamental position is, as a fellow national liberation movement leader, Mugabe’s ruling Zanu PF party must be maintained in power at all costs.

Mugabe’s rule can continue by brute force as long as there are well armed and well paid men willing to protect him. His rule will probably mutate into the Papa Doc model used in Haiti where his thugs were made exempt from the rule of law.

Although there is much global talk and discussion it appears unlikely to be any forceful intervention at the moment.

Michael

Even though there will not be any meaningful intervention for the moment, at least the rest of the world is finally realising what the people of Rhodesia, Zimbabwe Rhodesia and Zimbabwe have been living with for the last 40 years or so.

If they hadn't been so blinkered before, something might have actually been done about it years ago.

Andrew

R McLeod says it best, it's time to make it clear not to Mugabe (who isn't listening anyway) but to Mbeki that he's either for democracy or againsts it, you're with us or against and your country must accept the consequences of your decision. Luckily he will be gone in 8 months and Mugabe's last pillar will collapse, it really is the only thing supporting him now. Mbeki has disgraced South Africa and Africa, he is the problem not the solution.

DC

In 8 months Thabo will be gone. 8 MONTHS? In 8 months how many more people will be dead (hopefully one of the dead will be Mugabe but I don't think that solves anything, replace Mugabe with Mujuru, Mnangagwa, Gono - same shit different stink)?

Zimbabwe can't wait that long. It shouldn't have to wait that long.

I wouldn't rule out forceful intervention. If the Mugabe administration is in any danger of falling (eg by popular revolt or coup by a band of soldiers or rebellion) you can guarantee that if Thabo is still around there will be intervention - to prop up the Mugabe regime. Although Thabo will call it a peacekeeping force.

After Thabo goes will Mugabe fold? First and foremost don't take it as guaranteed that Zuma will take over. The man has several corruption charges to work through any of which could derail his presidency.

And even if he manages to get to be president, dont' think that Thabo is working alone. There must be powerful political interests in the ANC, powerful business interests (with ZANU-PF) and other lobbies in SA working to ensure that ZANU-PF does not get thrown out. Thabo is a lily-livered Mugabe anal fetishist, no argument, but he is probably under pressure from many quarters to do what he does. Zuma may have to fall into line and get onto his knees behind Mugabe just like his predecessor.

iijaizir

mbeki is benefiting from the zanu pf looters,remember he had a meeting two years ago with sme of the mass looters,pliz whoever is is responsible mbeki should thoroughly investigated, i smell a rat.

Michael

Investigating Mbeki would be a damn good start, the problem inherant in that idea though is finding an investigator who doesn't have a personal stake in making sure Mbeki comes out clean, and who is impartial enough to conduct an investigation that will hold up as fair under scrutiny.

Jilo

Michael never mention the word Rhodesia again.

DC

There has been a subtle change in African politics in recent days and I wonder if anyone has noticed?

Until the UN resolution, all Africans were basically covering for Mugabe. That became untenable. So now they are covering for Mbeki - even the UN resolution 'commended his efforts' and re-endorsed his 'mediation'. Those statements were probably introduced by SA, Russia and China under approval from most of the AU.

So that means we now have a situation where Russia, China and Africa will cover for Mbeki and Mbeki will continue to cover for Mugabe.

The whole world keeps repeating that Mbeki is the key to the crisis. Yes he is, but not as a mediator. The key in this case is LOCKING the door to the solution not opening it. If we throw away the Mbeki key the door will fly wide open and the fresh breeze of change will blow through Zimbabwe and take the vapid stench of ZANU-PF away.

I think that means that there needs to be rapid surgical assassination strike against the South African president. People have suggested that the strike should be against Mugabe. I don't think this is a good idea, Mugabe is the symptom of a rotten party with rotten ideals and much as I'd like to completely do away with them, I would much rather give the Zimbabwean people the chance to beat them in an honest election and relegate them to position of opposition where they have the opportunity to redeem themselves and provide balance against any future misdemeanors of the ruling MDC and President Tsvangirai.

After all this is not about which party rules - it is about the ZImbabwean people getting a free and fair opportunity to elect a government of their choice. So far Mugabe and Mbeki have been preventing that. Without Mbeki Mugabe would have to capitulate.

Therefore, the strike needs to be against Thabo.

Michael

Jilo, Rhodesia is a part of the history of Africa, and although it may not have been a desirable part in a lot of peoples eyes, it cannot be simply erased by not mentioning it.

Also, I do not take orders from you, if you do not like the word, then simply skip past it in posts, if I find the word pertinent to the post in a historical manner then I WILL use it regardless of whether it is to your taste or not.

If Mr Moyo were to request that I refrain from using it then it would be different, as this is his column and it is his right to do so.

Dean Finnie

Interesting post in which you fail to mention Madiba's long awaited but brilliant condemnation of the Desperate Despot.

RMacleod

An update of who is who and some probably well known facts concerning the inner workings of ZANU PF, may be of interest.

Although it still holds regular Thursday meetings, the Politburo which was the real power house in the past is now in disarray.

The four person Presidency (Praesidium) is considered dysfunctional. The relationship between Mugabe and VP Joyce Mujuru is at best frosty. Other members, Joseph Msika wants to retire while John Nkomo, also the party chairman, has gone to SA for medical treatment.

The real power in the land now is with the Joint Operations Command (JOC). It comprises of ZDF commander Constantine Chiwenga, Air Force commander Perence Shiri, Police commissioner Augustine Chihuru, Prison director Paradzayi Zimondi and CIO director Happyton Bonyongwe.

A number of generals operating under Chiwenga (JOC) are :

Martin Chedondo who told his men to leave army unless they voted Mugabe. Nicholas Dube who led eviction operations against remaining white farmers. Christopher Sibanda in Bulawayo and Daniel Sigauke in Mashonaland West. All work closely with the so called green bombers and paramilitary thugs.

Brig. Gen Douglas Nyikayaramba who was chief election officer 2002 is now in charge of the present election strategy and also in charge of the war veterans onslaught on MDC in Mashonaland East.

It is likely all those mentioned above would face criminal charges if ZANU PF was toppled from power.

DC

Ok, I've said that Thabo Mbeki is scum of the earth - and I accept that even scum might take offence at being lumped together with this vile excuse of a creature.

But today the Mail and Guardian of South Africa reveal what I have suspected for some time: Mbeki and the South African arms establishment are providing Mugabe with the weapons to suppress Zimbabweans.

http://www.zwnews.com/issuefull.cfm?ArticleID=19047.

I said in my last blog that there were vested interests in addition to Thabo's fatal attraction to Mugabe's rectum which has let us to where we are today. And now we know at least some of what those interests are.

ganderson

It should not be forgotten that the parody of a democratic ‘election’ and the recent slaughter and torture of MDC leaders and their families and the beating into submission of the native Zimbabweans is just the tip of an iceberg that has included the systematic murder displacement and disenfranchisement of the Ndebele since Mugabe’s inception. It is too late for the dead and the only ones with the power to stop Mugabe risk leaving it too late if action is not taken TODAY.

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