South Africa falls in line

Latest statement from the ANC government urges release of results

Supporters of Morgan Tsvangirai, head of the opposition MDC, were surprised and delighted today when South Africa joined the international pressure on Zimbabwe and urged the immediate release of the results of last month's presidential elections.

The statement, demanding that the results be released "as soon as possible" clearly indicates the widening gulf on the issue of Zimbabwe between the South African government and its outgoing president, Thabo Mbeki.

Mbeki's likely successor, Jacob Zuma, has had recent talks with Tsvangiria, and is thought to be more sympathetic to his cause.

Comments

[DC]

I'm a cynic and this doesn't get me delighted or surprised at all. With Mbeki's and by extension South Africa's reputation in the sewer, and the pressure on them at the UN at present, the government of South Africa have little choice and nothing to lose by making the 'right noises'.

But that is all it is, noise. Nothing will come of it. Mbeki has been playing quiet diplomacy/quiet collusion for nearly a decade. He could not have done so without the support of the ANC. His star may be waning, but the people who shaped this policy are still in the ANC. Zuma may be sympathetic (actually I don't think he is), but the ANC is not going to roll-over and let ZANU-PF lose quietly.

We saw on Channel 4 recently of the secret meetings between Mbeki and Mugabe which clearly shows how partisan Mbeki is. That was discrete (although pretty obvious if you thougth about it).

Now get ready for the real question: ask yourself, after investing so much for so long into keeping ZANU-PF afloat, will the ANC let ZANU-PF leave power? If there is a peoples revolution, rest assured that ZANU-PF won't be fighting it alone. South Africa will send a 'regional peacekeeping force' (read military force to prop up the Mugabe regime) within a matter of days.