It's officially neck-and-neck!

New official results show Tsvangirai and Mugabe level - so why is Mugabe making plans to leave?

Harare, Zimbabwe, Monday, March 31, 11.30 am

Latest official voting figures for the House of Assembly reveal another 18 results, with the MDC and Zanu-PF now level pegging with 12 seats each. These so-called results conflict with the MDC's own figures, which consistently show the Tsvangirai faction leading by a large margin.

Sources tell me that so far the constituency seats are in truth shared out as follows:  the MDC with 61 per cent, Zanu-PF with 26 per cent, and others at 13 per cent.

Of particular interest is the race for the Presidency itself, between Mugabe, Tsvangirai and Simba Makoni. My information is that Tsvangirai is leading with 58 per cent of the vote counted so far, with Mugabe on 37 per cent and Makoni with a disappointing five per cent.

All these figures, however, mean nothing, because they and those to come are in the hands of the two expert poll rig-masters, who have undertaken the job of swapping the figures around to give Zanu-PF and Mugabe a totally false victory.

The two gentlemen in question are Registrar-General Tobaiwa Mudede and Brigadier-General Douglas Nyikayaramba. Already they have reversed a number of results in Masvingo and Mashonaland West, where the MDC claim they recorded a clean sweep.

But all is not lost. And the Electoral Commission may yet hang back from announcing a blatantly fixed set of results. Because Mugabe's much-relied-upon military and judicial support is beginning to look a little shaky.

The Joint Operating Command (JOC) - a security unit chaired by Mugabe and comprising the country's service chiefs - met at five this morning, and last I heard was still in session. And what his generals, etc., have had to say has shocked Mugabe.

It has been put to him that if his defeat at the polls is simply reversed, and called a victory, there will be a very real chance of violence at or above the scale seen in Kenya at the beginning of the year.

My source says that he was told there was no guarantee that the armed services could keep down a violent rebellion. In recent years the forces had been weakened by resignations and desertions, and many who still remain are not zealous Zanu-PF supporters.

This shock for Mugabe came on top of another blow. Some days ago I exclusively revealed on this site his plan to halt the election, if it went badly, by getting the Supreme Court to uphold two appeals concerning disqualified candidates.

The plan fell in ruins at Mugabe's feet when the Chief Justice, Godfrey Chidyausiku, having previously agreed to co-operate, changed his mind and refused to be pressured to give the judgement Mugabe wanted. Chidyausiku is believed to have sided with Simba Makoni and the Mutambara faction of the MDC.

During this morning an alternative, even outlandish plan for Mugabe's future has been discussed. It would involve an army coup, staged by Zimbabwe Defence Forces Chief General Constantine Chiwenga, shortly before final results of the election are due to be announced.

The Army would rule for six months, calling new elections for September, and allowing Mugabe to slip safely away to Malaysia where he has huge business interests. Thus the old man would avoid being arrested and put on trial by any new government.

My source within the JOC told me that if this happens, the army will appear impartial and professional, it will agree that the election was rigged by Zanu-PF, and everyone will believe that it is in favour of true democracy..

More developments and "results" as they happen. Keep checking in.

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