First fix of the day!

Why the survey that predicts a Mugabe win today is a fake

As voters queue at the polling stations today they should know that the pre-election poll, announced by Dr. Joseph Kurebwa, Chair of the Political Science and Administration department at the University of Zimbabwe, which predicted a Mugabe victory, is a fraud.

Top academics were hastily disassociating themselves from it yesterday, pointing out that the department never undertook any such survey, and denouncing it as propaganda emanating from Mugabe's secret police, the Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO).

This news will come as a relief to all those opposed to Zim 1 (Mugabe's code name). Dr. Kurebwa's survey predicted that the President would win up to 57 per cent of the vote, with the MDC's Tsvangirai trailing at 26 per cent and independent candidate Dr. Simba Makoni at around 13 per cent. This would result in a Zanu-PF majority of two-thirds in the new Parliament. But now it seems the good doctor's figures are total fiction.

The University's Doctor John Makumbe told me that the department undertook no such survey. "It is CIO fiction," he said. "Just part of Zanu-PF's rigging mechanism. Dr. Kurebwa did it on his own behind the facade of the department and the University."

He was echoed by Professor Eldred Masunungure, who also denied that the department had undertook such a survey. "I was not involved in it, and I was not even aware of it," he said.

And a lecturer in the department, Simon Badza, said he was shocked to see the announcement of the poll in the newspapers. "I for one disassociate myself from that research," he stated.

One worrying statistic remains. Prior to the 2005 parliamentary elections, Dr. Kurebwa announced a similar survey, predicting that Zanu-PF would win 72 seats and the MDC 45. The official result was 78 and 41. Coincidence? Inside knowledge of vote fixing? Or an inspired guess?

Can Dr. Kurebwa repeat his success of three years ago this weekend? We shall soon know, brothers and sisters. We shall soon know.

Comments

[David]

Our prayers go out for you.

http://bajan.wordpress.com/2008/03/28/the-zimbabwe-election-and-the-democratic-process/